Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89d8…868d other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$3
sports 28% +$22
crypto 16% +$6
world 2% +$4
politics 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 +9.7% -0.7% 91% 27% -2.1%
all 16 +0.6% -9.0% 88% 19% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 19% -4.9%
10% -17.7% 12% -14.0%
15% -25.7% 12% -22.3%
20% -32.9% 12% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$58 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage176d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $123 +$124 +101%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 22 $104 −$102 -98%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $6 +$4 +64%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? Apr 22 $9 +$1 +14%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of February 202 Apr 22 $10 $0 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 22 $12 $0 +3%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 22 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19? Apr 22 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $143 +$12 +8%
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by January 31? Feb 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
US bank failure by January 31? Jan 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29? Jan 07 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.93 · official $182.93 (match) · 33 history records