Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89d9…fbce crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$326 (-24%) realized −$327 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%45W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$44
sports 28% −$372
other 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 38 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 3% -4.5%
≤90d 44 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 2% -5.2%
all 47 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 2% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -32.3%
10% -17.8% 2% -38.7%
15% -25.8% 2% -44.7%
20% -33.1% 2% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$372 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses45 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage146d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 10? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 28? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 25? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $40 +$42 +104%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 21? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 21? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 27? Jan 31 $1 $0 +0%
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Elon Phoenix Jan 31 $372 −$372 -100%
Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jan 27 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 18d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $12 21d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $11 24d
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.40 · official $52.40 (match) · 99 history records