Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x89da…8b23
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$2,060 -80%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,060 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 2 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$8
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Hurricanes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 50¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET Up 50¢ $1,026 $0 −$1,026 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Spurs 34¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Up 50¢ $508 $0 −$508 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 42¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Under 73¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 47¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11AM ET Down 50¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 38¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 42¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10AM ET Down 50¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Under 27¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET Down 50¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +127%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 08 $5 +$3 +75%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 08 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $463 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11AM ET Jan 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10AM ET Jan 09 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET Jan 09 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET Jan 09 $301 −$301 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Jan 09 $508 −$508 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$2,055
politics 18% −$1
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $3 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $3 26h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $3 3d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $0 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $462 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $4 8d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $7 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 13d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 15d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 16d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $3 18d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 20d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 21d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 47¢ $6 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $463 26d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $95 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $125 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,026 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $301 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $358 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $149 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +32.7% +20.1% 67% 67% -7.4%
≤30d 14 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -10.5%
all 19 -37.1% -43.1% 32% 32% -82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 32% -82.1%
10% -48.6% 32% -83.8%
15% -53.5% 32% -85.4%
20% -58.1% 26% -86.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 61 history records