Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x89dc…4431 other 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,185 (+1%) realized +$1,185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$828per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,140
politics 34% −$47
sports 7% +$21
world 4% +$47
culture 3% −$5
economics 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 +1.5% -8.2% 7% 1% -8.5%
all 153 +2.7% -7.1% 22% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 11% -8.7%
10% -16.0% 11% -17.4%
15% -24.1% 11% -25.4%
20% -31.6% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,090) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$5 · ×10.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized+$1,185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage159d
Avg bet$828
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $683 $682 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $5,403 −$6 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,530 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $1,212 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,095 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,104 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $294 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $467 +$1 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $725 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $750 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,394 −$3 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $630 +$2 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $651 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,329 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,361 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $3,570 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,363 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $3,599 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,617 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,354 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,378 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $4,786 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $460 7m
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $683 25h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $954 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $956 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,162 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,164 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,210 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,212 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $972 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $974 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,102 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $992 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $994 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,118 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,315 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,317 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.31 · official $682.31 (match) · 526 history records