Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89df…f8d0 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,435 (-5%) realized −$813 · open −$622
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%61W / 103L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$5,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,332
7 days−$3,722
14 days−$3,641
30 days−$1,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$933
other 39% −$1,478
culture 5% +$7
crypto 2% +$71
politics 0% −$60
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -60.3% -64.1% 19% 19% -56.9%
≤30d 98 -29.8% -36.5% 35% 34% -18.3%
≤90d 125 -33.3% -39.6% 34% 33% -19.0%
all 164 -30.8% -37.4% 37% 36% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 36% -17.2%
10% -43.4% 34% -25.1%
15% -48.9% 32% -32.3%
20% -53.9% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$86 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$5,761
Realized−$813
Unrealized−$622
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses61 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions85
Markets (closed)164 / 251
History coverage190d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 95¢ $375 $560 +$185 (+49%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $631 $487 −$144 (-23%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 78¢ 97¢ $300 $374 +$74 (+25%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 59¢ 92¢ $200 $310 +$110 (+55%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 88¢ $200 $292 +$92 (+46%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 82¢ $203 $263 +$60 (+30%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 58¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+20%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 60¢ 82¢ $150 $207 +$57 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $225 $169 −$56 (-25%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 12¢ $350 $130 −$220 (-63%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $150 $108 −$42 (-28%)
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 64¢ $81 $106 +$25 (+31%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 77¢ $70 $84 +$14 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 24¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+45%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 63¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $811 −$388 -48%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $607 −$599 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$120 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,016 −$411 -40%
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 15 $102 +$68 +67%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $407 −$102 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 15 $709 −$543 -77%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 15 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $405 +$344 +85%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $204 +$313 +154%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $106 +$94 +89%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $1,165 +$47 +4%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $204 +$118 +58%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $202 −$43 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $102 +$161 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $202 +$23 +11%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $202 +$126 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $355 +$266 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $203 +$84 +42%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $507 +$436 +86%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5) May 31 $202 +$113 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $102 30m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $171 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $579 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 46¢ $102 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 46¢ $102 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 41¢ $204 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $202 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $202 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 51¢ $406 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 36¢ $102 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 36¢ $102 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 37¢ $102 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 63¢ $101 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 62¢ $101 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $202 6h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 68¢ $202 6h
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 20¢ $51 25h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 47¢ $203 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 57¢ $101 25h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 34¢ $51 38h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 34¢ $102 38h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 71¢ $101 38h
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 75¢ $101 38h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,761.30 · official $5,761.46 (match) · 641 history records