Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x89e0…9412
culture · 557 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$10,192 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,779 · open +$817
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP culture specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,051
Realized+$8,779
Unrealized+$817
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses474 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions49
Markets (closed)511 / 557
History coverage135d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 49 History 511 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$94
14 days+$1,587
30 days+$1,926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,815 $2,817 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $2,103 $2,499 +$396 (+19%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 67¢ 99¢ $500 $738 +$238 (+48%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $672 $694 +$22 (+3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $486 $510 +$24 (+5%)
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $437 $439 +$2 (+0%)
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $424 $425 +$1 (+0%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $396 $423 +$28 (+7%)
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 98¢ 99¢ $387 $388 +$2 (+0%)
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $364 $371 +$7 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $354 $362 +$8 (+2%)
Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 90¢ 80¢ $388 $344 −$44 (-11%)
Will Ed Sheeran have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 97¢ 99¢ $272 $277 +$6 (+2%)
Will "Ran To Atlanta - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $269 $270 +$1 (+1%)
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $194 $195 +$1 (+1%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $144 $162 +$18 (+13%)
Will A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 71¢ 83¢ $129 $150 +$21 (+16%)
Will Kendrick Lamar have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 98¢ 98¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $125 $127 +$3 (+2%)
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 90¢ 96¢ $107 $114 +$8 (+7%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Jun 11 $120 +$15 +12%
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song f Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Jun 08 $45 +$2 +4%
Will "Ran To Atlanta - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 08 $278 +$2 +1%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 08 $56 +$2 +4%
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J Jun 08 $73 +$2 +2%
Will "Maid of Honor - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the wee Jun 08 $82 +$4 +5%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f Jun 08 $179 +$7 +4%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 08 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 07 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in June? Jun 07 $88 +$12 +14%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 06 $393 +$42 +11%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 04 $2,899 +$131 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $395 +$5 +1%
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 03 $5 +$4 +92%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 02 $23 +$7 +32%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song f Jun 02 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $107 +$5 +4%
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $460 +$13 +3%
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $8,015 +$259 +3%
Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $305 +$10 +3%
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $349 +$4 +1%
Will Beyonce have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $435 +$3 +1%
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $431 +$1 +0%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 01 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $135 +$4 +3%
Will Taylor Swift have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify l Jun 01 $259 +$4 +2%
Will Ed Sheeran have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 01 $246 +$4 +2%
Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify list Jun 01 $272 +$3 +1%
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 01 $54 +$34 +63%
Will Kendrick Lamar have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify Jun 01 $253 +$3 +1%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 01 $1,313 +$35 +3%
Will Ed Sheeran have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 01 $251 +$4 +2%
Will Kanye West have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 01 $251 +$4 +2%
Will Drake have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listener Jun 01 $344 +$6 +2%
Will Billie Eilish have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify Jun 01 $255 +$3 +1%
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listen Jun 01 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Lady Gaga have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify list Jun 01 $258 +$4 +2%
Will Coldplay have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify liste Jun 01 $253 +$3 +1%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $1,982 +$392 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 79% +$6,974
other 14% +$2,705
world 4% −$1,014
politics 2% +$633
sports 1% +$318
finance 0% −$49
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$5
tech 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 100¢ $2,815 35m
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 100¢ $10 36m
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener BUY No 98¢ $148 37m
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener BUY No 98¢ $131 37m
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener BUY No 98¢ $108 37m
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 100¢ $118 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $85 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL Yes 98¢ $1,120 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 92¢ $201 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 78¢ $202 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 62¢ $306 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 33¢ $317 1h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $0 8h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $66 27h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 27h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY Yes 20¢ $3 27h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $60 33h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 33h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY Yes 15¢ $1 34h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY Yes 14¢ $1 34h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 21% -3.3%
≤30d 115 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 16% -5.9%
≤90d 341 +1.7% -8.0% 92% 12% -9.5%
all 511 +13.2% +2.4% 93% 13% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 13% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 8% -15.4%
15% -16.3% 5% -23.6%
20% -24.5% 5% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,051.22 · official $13,051.23 (match) · 3500 history records