Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89e2…6e01 crypto 853 markets active 3h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$416 (-4%) realized −$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate68%583W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$71
14 days+$20
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$488
sports 9% −$79
other 2% +$9
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +6.9% -3.3% 45% 45% -0.6%
≤30d 70 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 44% -14.0%
≤90d 852 -5.4% -14.4% 68% 62% -14.6%
all 852 -5.4% -14.4% 68% 62% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 62% -14.6%
10% -22.6% 43% -22.8%
15% -30.1% 15% -30.3%
20% -37.0% 5% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses583 / 269
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)852 / 853
History coverage76d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 852 Trades
no open positions (101 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 +$8 +276%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$5 -45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$16 +158%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$15 +494%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$10 +94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $6 +$6 +103%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$8 +128%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 +$9 +99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +380%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $13 +$14 +105%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$10 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$12 -72%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $38 +$41 +110%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 +$32 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $5 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $17 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $11 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $6 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 15¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1951 history records