Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
89 0x89e3…30c2 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,013per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 98% −$16
other 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
all 7 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage152d
Avg bet$2,013
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 13 $36 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 28 $15,857 −$16 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 28 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 20d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $36 59d
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $36 93d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 109d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $15,841 109d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $15,857 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.54 · official $36.54 (match) · 35 history records