Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x89e4…99ee sports 369 markets active 4h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%192W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$7
sports 48% −$60
other 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 43 +1.4% -8.3% 95% 2% -8.9%
all 368 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 41% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 41% -12.0%
10% -21.0% 41% -20.5%
15% -28.7% 40% -28.1%
20% -35.7% 40% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses192 / 176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage220d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 8? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May May 12 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 3? May 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May May 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? May 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap May 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on April 18? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Apr Apr 18 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 11? Apr 16 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 9? Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 9? Apr 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 10? Apr 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on April 9? Apr 08 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 5? Apr 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 5? Apr 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 3? Apr 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 3? Apr 03 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 30? Apr 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on March 30? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 27? Mar 30 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 27? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Mar 27 $1 +$1 +59%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 27 $1 +$1 +85%
Spread: 76ers (-8.5) Mar 27 $1 +$1 +100%
SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Mar 27 $1 +$1 +133%
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5 Mar 27 $2 +$3 +104%
Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $47 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $46 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $46 15d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $46 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $46 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma SELL Yes 100¢ $46 34d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 97¢ $12 35d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 97¢ $33 35d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May SELL Yes 100¢ $45 40d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May BUY Yes 99¢ $45 40d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May SELL Yes 100¢ $15 43d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May SELL Yes 100¢ $30 43d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May BUY Yes 99¢ $44 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 48d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May BUY Yes 98¢ $29 48d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 53d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.95 · official $46.95 (match) · 600 history records