Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89e5…6f7a other 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 1146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$485 (+2%) realized +$497 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%83W / 60L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days−$416
14 days−$124
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$433
other 4% −$52
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
weather 0% −$6
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.9% -14.0% 75% 25% -15.0%
≤30d 65 -6.2% -15.2% 75% 42% -8.1%
≤90d 104 -20.5% -28.1% 61% 36% -7.9%
all 143 -18.9% -26.7% 58% 40% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 40% -8.2%
10% -33.7% 27% -17.0%
15% -40.1% 15% -25.0%
20% -46.0% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$53 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1146d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized+$497
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses83 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions43
Markets (closed)143 / 186
History coverage1146d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $659 $655 −$4 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+38%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-68%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 25¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 54¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 26¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? No 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $710 −$83 -12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $608 +$138 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $581 +$23 +4%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $530 +$45 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $403 +$123 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $386 +$20 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $356 +$30 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $336 +$21 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $313 +$23 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $297 +$15 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $234 +$64 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $543 −$309 -57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,004 −$559 -56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $501 +$54 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$11 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 +$4 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $942 +$79 +8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $804 +$138 +17%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $604 +$167 +28%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $703 −$371 -53%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $903 +$113 +12%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $798 +$116 +14%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $729 +$70 +10%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $701 +$28 +4%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $702 +$59 +8%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $661 +$48 +7%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $600 +$65 +11%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $25 +$7 +29%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $562 +$61 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $28 +$11 +39%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $1 $0 +20%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $408 +$162 +40%
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 4.5 May 30 $351 +$57 +16%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5 May 30 $201 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $664 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $627 2h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $710 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $608 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $581 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $530 36h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $403 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $386 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $356 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $336 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $336 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $313 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $297 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $234 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $234 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $543 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 39¢ $445 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,004 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,001 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $20 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $60 8d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 53¢ $10 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $942 10d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $804 11d
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $604 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.11 · official $788.00 (match) · 289 history records