Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x89e6…6819 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 437d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$892 (+11%) realized +$134 · open +$758
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%33W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6,984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$913
world 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
other 1% −$25
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 90% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 0% -9.2%
all 35 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 6% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -2.3%
10% -19.2% 0% -11.6%
15% -27.0% 0% -20.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.29 per $1 lost it wins $6.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

437d coverage
Net worth$6,984
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$758
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses33 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage437d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $6,116 $6,875 +$758 (+12%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? Jun 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 27 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $12 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 27 $13 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 5? Feb 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,400 on January 5? Feb 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 5? Feb 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on December 11? Jan 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 1 Jan 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on December 11 Jan 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Dec 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on November 13? Dec 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 13 $15 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? Oct 03 $1,087 +$151 +14%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $2,511 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $89 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $1,424 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $4 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $1 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $143 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $3 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $8 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $1,932 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $36 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $12 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $12 28d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $12 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 28d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $12 61d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 96d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $12 96d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,984.48 · official $6,984.48 (match) · 90 history records