Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89e6…5501 sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,369 (-1%) realized −$1,337 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%143W / 241L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$811est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,140
7 days−$1,833
14 days−$1,453
30 days−$1,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,825
other 42% +$767
crypto 1% −$800
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -8.6% -17.3% 33% 31% -20.7%
≤30d 164 +1.6% -8.1% 35% 35% -12.4%
≤90d 336 -8.8% -17.5% 32% 31% -15.6%
all 384 +1.1% -8.5% 37% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 36% -11.1%
10% -17.3% 34% -19.6%
15% -25.3% 33% -27.4%
20% -32.6% 32% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$373 vs −$229 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$1,337
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses143 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$811
Open positions2
Markets (closed)384 / 386
History coverage138d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 100¢ $111 $168 +$57 (+51%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 15¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $570 −$570 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $249 +$107 +43%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,150 +$1,900 +165%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $149 +$108 +72%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $302 −$302 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $135 −$135 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $767 +$835 +109%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $104 +$588 +567%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $81 −$81 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $789 −$789 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $539 −$539 -100%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $158 +$281 +178%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $355 +$328 +92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $4 +$6 +149%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $278 −$278 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $54 +$50 +93%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $246 +$586 +238%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $153 +$544 +354%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $575 +$144 +25%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,171 −$1,171 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 +$11 +160%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,178 −$1,178 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $198 −$198 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 25 $156 −$109 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $148 +$5 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $260 −$34 -13%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $97 −$97 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $354 −$354 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,174 +$1,186 +101%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $157 −$157 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $917 −$917 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $142 +$546 +383%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $944 −$944 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $91 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $141 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $235 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $335 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $111 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 70¢ $249 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,150 26h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 10¢ $1 27h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $149 31h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $94 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $302 44h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $27 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $8 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $13 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $9 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $19 45h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $43 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.81 · official $165.63 · 1984 history records