Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89eb…374b other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-10%) realized −$89 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$33
politics 17% −$138
sports 6% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -33.0%
≤30d 8 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -33.0%
≤90d 8 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -33.0%
all 8 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 50% -33.0%
10% -39.4% 50% -39.4%
15% -45.2% 50% -45.3%
20% -50.6% 25% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$46 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)8 / 17
History coverage16d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $95 $112 +$17 (+17%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $44 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 +$31 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $45 +$16 +36%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.48 · official $427.48 (match) · 45 history records