Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x89eb…a676
world · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage481d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $123 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $45 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $12 $0 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $30 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $122 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $259 +$2 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $271 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $244 +$2 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $273 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $243 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $7 $0 +0%
Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Mar 05 $4 +$4 +100%
Western Carolina vs. Chattanooga Mar 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$1
sports 26% −$5
other 22% −$6
politics 10% +$2
finance 5% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $26 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $26 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $7 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $7 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $6 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $30 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $31 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $29 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.4% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 28 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -3.3% -12.5% 36% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -20.9% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.17 · official $8.00 (match) · 140 history records