Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89ed…c4f8 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-17%) realized −$44 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$2
sports 33% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -43.7% -49.0% 33% 33% -42.4%
≤30d 6 -43.7% -49.0% 33% 33% -42.4%
≤90d 6 -43.7% -49.0% 33% 33% -42.4%
all 6 -43.7% -49.0% 33% 33% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 33% -42.4%
10% -53.9% 33% -47.9%
15% -58.4% 33% -53.0%
20% -62.5% 33% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $60 $74 +$14 (+23%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.55 · official $84.55 (match) · 11 history records