Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89ee…e1e0 crypto 1495 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$235 (-9%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%581W / 911L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$44
sports 8% −$94
other 1% +$3
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -5.6% -14.6% 63% 62% -12.3%
≤30d 213 -0.6% -10.0% 49% 48% -9.2%
≤90d 1492 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 38% -14.0%
all 1492 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 38% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 38% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 37% -22.3%
15% -28.9% 33% -29.8%
20% -35.9% 28% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses581 / 911
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1492 / 1495
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1492 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +117%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records