Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89f3…7b9f other 613 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,019 (+14%) realized +$649 · open +$370
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%302W / 306L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$388
7 days+$506
14 days+$845
30 days+$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$892
sports 5% +$489
crypto 1% −$2
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -8.1% -16.8% 38% 35% +5.2%
≤30d 218 +8.8% -1.6% 51% 50% +5.4%
≤90d 524 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 47% +4.9%
all 608 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 48% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 48% +4.8%
10% -17.5% 42% -5.2%
15% -25.5% 35% -14.4%
20% -32.8% 29% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$649
Unrealized+$370
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses302 / 306
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)608 / 613
History coverage103d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $1,000 $1,371 +$371 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $627 +$388 +62%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 +$498 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,136 −$485 -43%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $614 +$37 +6%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $521 +$92 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $370 +$150 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $331 +$37 +11%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $281 +$48 +17%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +223%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $256 +$22 +9%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +55%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +178%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $216 +$46 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $195 +$23 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,015 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $627 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $157 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $495 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 71¢ $495 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $642 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $614 5d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 5d
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Will AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,374.40 · official $1,391.65 · 1061 history records