Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f6…9914 weather 1524 markets active 1d ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$427 (+0%) realized +$409 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1491W / 31L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$55
14 days+$66
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$581
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 2% -8.5%
≤30d 253 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1522 +2.7% -7.1% 98% 1% -10.2%
all 1522 +2.7% -7.1% 98% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 1% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 1% -18.8%
15% -24.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -31.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$45 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,028
Realized+$409
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1491 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1522 / 1524
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,800 $1,818 +$18 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $802 +$37 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $800 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $80 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $500 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $100 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $130 34h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $120 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $88 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,028.04 · official $2,027.92 (match) · 3500 history records