Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x89f7…f073 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$376 (-8%) realized −$367 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%51W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$119
14 days−$305
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$869
sports 37% +$535
crypto 1% +$36
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +36.4% +23.4% 55% 55% -4.8%
≤30d 79 +21.7% +10.1% 44% 44% -15.4%
≤90d 98 +14.1% +3.2% 45% 45% -15.5%
all 107 +11.7% +1.0% 48% 42% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 42% -15.5%
10% -8.6% 41% -23.6%
15% -17.5% 40% -31.0%
20% -25.6% 34% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$47 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses51 / 56
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage248d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $150 $180 +$30 (+20%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 12¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $152 +$102 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$89 +291%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$74 +146%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$200 +650%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $29 +$36 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $65 −$63 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $65 −$63 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$115 +388%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $44 +$39 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $82 +$215 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$76 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$56 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$23 +29%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +146%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $70 +$121 +172%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 36h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 36h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 37h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $29 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $29 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.63 · official $190.63 (match) · 176 history records