Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f9…4cc3 crypto 142 markets active 5h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+8%) realized +$52 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%41W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$61
crypto 22% −$51
world 7% +$10
sports 3% −$6
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.5% -19.0% 32% 27% -6.0%
≤30d 115 -15.6% -23.6% 31% 26% -20.8%
≤90d 121 -13.1% -21.3% 34% 28% -9.0%
all 121 -13.1% -21.3% 34% 28% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 28% -9.0%
10% -28.9% 25% -17.8%
15% -35.7% 21% -25.7%
20% -42.0% 18% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses41 / 80
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)121 / 142
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $76 $82 +$6 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $46 +$13 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-13%)
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+164%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 7¢ 12¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+71%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 29¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Will a player representing Uruguay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will a player representing Japan be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will a player representing Croatia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will a player representing Colombia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will a player representing Iran be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will a player representing Uzbekistan be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will a player representing Tunisia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $67 +$23 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Will a player representing Mexico be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 12 $1 +$4 +465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 09 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $90 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 28h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will a player representing Croatia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will a player representing Uruguay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 4d
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.66 · official $243.66 (match) · 360 history records