Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8A 0x8a01…3239 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$248 (+21%) realized +$100 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +85% what you keep after slip
Net edge+85%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$740
other 38% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+85.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +146.7% +123.2% 100% 100% +123.2%
≤30d 2 +104.7% +85.2% 100% 100% +82.5%
≤90d 2 +104.7% +85.2% 100% 100% +82.5%
all 2 +104.7% +85.2% 100% 100% +82.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.2% 100% +82.5%
10% +67.5% 100% +65.1%
15% +51.3% 100% +49.1%
20% +36.5% 100% +34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$370 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage13d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $192 $340 +$148 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $338 +$496 +147%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $389 +$244 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $229 34m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $432 34m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $402 38m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 50m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 50m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $327 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $245 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $235 3h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $330 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 34¢ $303 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.19 · official $340.19 (match) · 13 history records