Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a02…c761 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 24% −$19
politics 11% −$8
culture 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$9
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage131d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $95 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 21 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $558 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $352 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $356 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 20m
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $47 6h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 8h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 9h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 22h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 24h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 25h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 28h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 32h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $48 37h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $48 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 43h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 44h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1336 history records