Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8a03…27c2 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%53W / 85L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$18
politics 21% +$3
other 20% +$11
sports 9% −$2
finance 2% +$5
tech 1% +$6
culture 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.4% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 29 +2.4% -7.3% 41% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 36 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 8% -9.1%
all 138 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 5% -9.0%
10% -15.8% 3% -17.7%
15% -23.9% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage467d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $220 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $120 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $115 +$4 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $221 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $112 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $317 −$19 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $199 +$15 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $141 +$5 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $104 −$4 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $109 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $231 +$2 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $122 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $108 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $16 +$9 +54%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $78 +$14 +18%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $275 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $617 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $622 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $622 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,240 +$3 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $7 $0 -4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $19 $0 -2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $2 $0 -11%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $85 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $91 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $105 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $115 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $116 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $117 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $119 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $120 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $112 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $115 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $82 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $105 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.99 · official $104.83 (match) · 558 history records