Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a03…cf2d weather 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
Total PnL −$270 (-20%) realized −$289 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 25% −$78
other 24% −$84
weather 19% −$35
sports 13% −$6
politics 10% −$6
crypto 9% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.5% -28.1% 45% 36% -40.8%
≤30d 39 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 28% -30.7%
≤90d 98 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 41% -28.8%
all 98 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 41% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 41% -28.8%
10% -30.8% 32% -35.6%
15% -37.5% 24% -41.8%
20% -43.6% 19% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$289
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage77d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $132 −$25 -19%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 07 $128 −$89 -69%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 06 $139 −$8 -6%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 06 $132 −$6 -4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 05 $345 −$78 -23%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 05 $173 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 2? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 1? Jun 04 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 2? Jun 04 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on April 1? Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 1? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on Apri Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 2? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 1? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 1? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 1? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 2? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 1? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-04-01? Jun 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 1? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 1? Apr 01 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 1? Apr 01 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 1? Apr 01 $3 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1? Apr 01 $1 +$4 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 1? Apr 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 4¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $107 7d
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 66¢ $132 7d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 1¢ $1 7d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $1 7d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 11¢ $1 7d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 5¢ $2 7d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 313 history records