trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-13%) |
| Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic | Valentin Royer | 14¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti | Marco Trungelliti | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +146% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic | May 26 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti | May 26 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | May 26 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY Yes | 94¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | BUY Yes | 57¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 62¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 60¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 6¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | BUY Yes | 30¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic | BUY Valentin Royer | 14¢ | $1 | 16d |
| Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti | BUY Marco Trungelliti | 24¢ | $1 | 16d |
| Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon? | BUY Yes | 2¢ | $1 | 16d |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL No | 9¢ | $0 | 16d |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY No | 43¢ | $1 | 60d |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 19¢ | $1 | 60d |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | BUY Yes | 40¢ | $1 | 60d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +145.5% | +122.1% | 100% | 100% | +122.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -33.5% | -39.9% | 25% | 25% | -39.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -33.5% | -39.9% | 25% | 25% | -39.9% |
| all | 4 | -33.5% | -39.9% | 25% | 25% | -39.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.9% | 25% | -39.9% |
| 10% | -45.6% | 25% | -45.6% |
| 15% | -50.9% | 25% | -50.9% |
| 20% | -55.7% | 25% | -55.7% |