Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a06…afd1 world 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%43W / 61L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$3
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$19
politics 20% +$8
other 16% −$4
sports 10% +$32
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 49 +39.7% +26.4% 35% 4% -9.4%
all 104 +18.1% +6.9% 41% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 3% -9.4%
10% -3.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -12.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -21.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses43 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage466d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $86 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $77 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $247 −$3 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $92 −$5 -5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $79 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $79 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $77 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $163 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $134 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $152 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $376 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $169 −$7 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $180 −$11 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $87 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $171 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $74 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $185 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $18 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $91 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $168 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $991 +$8 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $972 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $972 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 +$32 +88%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,028 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Mar 27 $6 −$1 -17%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 27 $2 $0 +5%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Mar 27 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $86 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $86 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $70 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $71 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $78 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $78 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $48 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $62 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $80 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $80 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $24 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $55 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $79 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $79 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $81 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $81 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $81 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records