Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a09…52de crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$4
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.7% -52.7% 0% 0% -53.0%
≤30d 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -36.0%
≤90d 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -36.0%
all 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -36.0%
10% -30.6% 40% -42.1%
15% -37.3% 40% -47.7%
20% -43.4% 30% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $66 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.72 · official $66.72 (match) · 27 history records