Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a0a…8f66 weather 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,283 (+26%) realized +$3,283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$28
14 days−$133
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$3,790
other 14% −$383
weather 4% −$28
world 2% −$177
politics 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 4% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 30 -13.8% -22.0% 3% 0% -33.2%
≤90d 57 -13.6% -21.8% 26% 23% +5.8%
all 64 -2.3% -11.6% 34% 31% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 31% +13.7%
10% -20.1% 27% +2.8%
15% -27.8% 27% -7.1%
20% -34.9% 20% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$81 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage139d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$10 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$2 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $107 −$105 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $41 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $711 −$707 -99%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $697 +$153 +22%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 11 $497 +$223 +45%
Knicks vs. Hornets Apr 11 $196 −$196 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Panthers vs. Flames Apr 11 $341 −$341 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 11 $420 −$420 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Apr 11 $288 −$288 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 10 $230 +$250 +108%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $498 +$102 +20%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $301 +$399 +133%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $823 +$1,176 +143%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 25 $960 +$640 +67%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $521 +$319 +61%
Ducks vs. Utah Mar 21 $858 +$1,092 +127%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Mar 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $44 46m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $44 49m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 65¢ $7 53m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 66¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 47¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 70¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 70¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 71¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 318 history records