Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a0e…869e other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,816 (-28%) realized −$1,806 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$10
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,570
crypto 18% −$77
sports 10% −$208
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -41.0% -46.6% 50% 0% -61.2%
≤90d 4 -49.9% -54.7% 25% 0% -60.2%
all 26 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 27% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 27% -40.2%
10% -37.2% 23% -45.9%
15% -43.3% 23% -51.2%
20% -48.9% 23% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$148 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized−$1,806
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage199d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $484 $475 −$9 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $473 $471 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $267 +$10 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $569 −$487 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 15 $156 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 15 $199 −$35 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 16 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 16 $30 −$2 -5%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 16 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 16 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Jan 06 $1,331 −$1,331 -100%
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Dec 26 $598 −$193 -32%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Dec 26 $425 −$117 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Dec 26 $394 −$107 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on December 26? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $285 +$328 +115%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $270 +$169 +63%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 23 $116 −$19 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $625 +$107 +17%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $91 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $393 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $497 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $138 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $138 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $266 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 6¢ $81 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $166 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $403 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $156 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $164 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $199 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $41 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $52 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $28 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $28 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $30 97d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 97d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $32 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 97d
New Mexico vs. Minnesota SELL New Mexico 40¢ $404 177d
New Mexico vs. Minnesota BUY New Mexico 65¢ $14 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.80 · official $946.80 (match) · 66 history records