Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a0f…00bd crypto 1626 markets active 5h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$168 (-3%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%615W / 541L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day93.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$282
14 days+$656
30 days+$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 59% +5.2%
≤30d 1156 +25.3% +13.4% 53% 52% +5.4%
≤90d 1156 +25.3% +13.4% 53% 52% +5.4%
all 1156 +25.3% +13.4% 53% 52% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 52% +5.4%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 45% -4.7%
15% -7.4% 34% -13.9%
20% -16.5% 25% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses615 / 541
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1156 / 1626
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day93.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1156 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2375 history records