Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a11…9282 sports 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$220 (-4%) realized −$219 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%124W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$101
14 days+$79
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$180
other 4% +$6
crypto 1% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +15.6% +4.5% 52% 52% +7.6%
≤30d 85 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 56% -2.1%
≤90d 250 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 49% -10.9%
all 250 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 49% -10.9%
10% -23.1% 49% -19.5%
15% -30.5% 48% -27.2%
20% -37.3% 42% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses124 / 126
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions6
Markets (closed)250 / 260
History coverage82d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ 64¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ 55¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 45¢ 44¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 52¢ 52¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $26 +$61 +238%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $24 −$24 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $24 +$30 +124%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $25 +$47 +188%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay ( Jun 27 $25 +$59 +238%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 $24 −$24 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 26 $24 −$24 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $25 −$2 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 26 $25 +$26 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $25 +$21 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $25 +$15 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $24 +$23 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $24 +$14 +57%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $25 +$20 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$17 +110%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$16 -53%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $25 −$24 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $24 +$22 +90%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $24 +$14 +57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $24 +$14 +57%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $24 +$22 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $25 +$14 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $25 +$20 +79%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $25 +$21 +83%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$22 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $25 +$15 +62%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $24 −$24 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $25 +$21 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $25 +$20 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $24 −$24 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $25 +$18 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $24 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $24 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $25 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $24 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $25 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $24 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay ( BUY 29¢ $25 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 34¢ $25 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $24 47h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $25 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $24 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $24 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $25 3d
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $24 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $25 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 29¢ $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 49¢ $25 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Korea R BUY 34¢ $25 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $25 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY $15 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $25 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia wi BUY 18¢ $26 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $24 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 42¢ $24 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.72 · official $171.72 (match) · 442 history records