Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a13…7180 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$7
other 38% $0
politics 14% −$4
crypto 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 11 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 18% -7.8%
≤90d 11 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 18% -7.8%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.0%
10% -18.8% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 +$4 +10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $27 +$4 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 -10%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $13 $0 -2%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 30 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106000 and $108000 on May 16? May 17 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 14 $16 $0 -1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? May 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $1 $0 +15%
Bybit withdrawals halted for >24 hours before April? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 26 $17 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 23 $17 $0 +2%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $15 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $35 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $16 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $30 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $44 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $3 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $46 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $5 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $5 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $38 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $38 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $36 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $6 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $43 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $36 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $24 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $23 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $17 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records