Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a26…937e sports 957 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25,927 (+2%) realized +$25,864 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%526W / 429L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,084per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Fees−$11,535est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,672
7 days−$9,510
14 days−$54,011
30 days+$7,815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,598
other 8% +$8,315
politics 3% +$8,121
world 0% +$1,252
crypto 0% −$510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 695 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 955 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 52% -8.3%
all 955 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 52% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 52% -8.3%
10% -20.7% 46% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 39% -25.1%
20% -35.4% 32% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$653 vs −$770 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,063
Realized+$25,864
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses526 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$11,535
Open positions1
Markets (closed)955 / 957
History coverage43d
Avg bet$1,084
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 955 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 53¢ 56¢ $1,000 $1,063 +$63 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,522 +$1,474 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3,549 +$3,054 +86%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $16,824 +$8,742 +52%
Cristopher Sánchez: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Cristopher Sánchez: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,596 −$1,596 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3,040 +$2,414 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2,472 +$992 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $3,049 +$3,586 +118%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $10,104 +$5,182 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $4,101 −$4,101 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,562 +$3,763 +82%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10,039 +$1,439 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40,067 +$2,262 +6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8,413 +$1,576 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6,411 +$3,486 +54%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $1,831 −$1,831 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2,303 −$2,303 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1,520 +$1,207 +79%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,072 +106%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $5,318 +$660 +12%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $2,228 +$1,584 +71%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $2,023 +$1,172 +58%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,038 −$3,038 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,541 −$2,541 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,552 −$2,552 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,064 −$5,064 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10,144 −$10,144 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $20,212 −$20,212 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,528 +$1,436 +57%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $812 −$812 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $201 +$226 +112%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $261 −$261 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $334 −$90 -27%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 13 $101 −$76 -76%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,013 +$717 +71%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10,143 +$9,057 +89%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $506 −$506 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 13 $507 −$507 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 13 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,533 −$1,533 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $6,510 −$6,510 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,511 +$453 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,227 +$3,524 +287%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $660 +$673 +102%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,010 −$984 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,997 57m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $25,566 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,522 4h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $1,258 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $6 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $131 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $187 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $65 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $93 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $13 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $22 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $93 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $182 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $9 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $721 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $23 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $62 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $24 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $4 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $2 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $30 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $39 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $126 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $28 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $2 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $355 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $3 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $130 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $2 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $217 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,063.26 · official $1,063.26 (match) · 3101 history records