Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a2a…420a sports 124 markets active 6d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-4%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days+$94
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$797
crypto 18% −$83
other 17% −$423
weather 13% −$277
politics 3% −$141
world 3% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.3% -3.0% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 25 -4.2% -13.4% 44% 44% -17.9%
≤90d 106 -5.7% -14.7% 31% 31% -3.0%
all 124 -15.8% -23.8% 28% 28% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 28% -14.9%
10% -31.1% 27% -23.1%
15% -37.8% 27% -30.5%
20% -43.9% 26% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$32 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 89
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage140d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? Jun 07 $36 +$137 +383%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $96 −$93 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 22? May 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda May 22 $123 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 22 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 22 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 22 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 22 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +101%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov May 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Kriish Tyagi May 20 $148 +$174 +118%
T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw? May 09 $21 +$258 +1254%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw? May 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 7? May 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $32 −$31 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Barbora Krejcikova vs Elsa Jacquemot May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? May 05 $38 +$97 +257%
Jiujiang: Viktoria Morvayova vs Yexin Ma May 05 $75 +$88 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 6? May 05 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $77 −$45 -58%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 04 $84 +$122 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 04 $35 +$50 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 10d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $173 10d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 10d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 20d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 21d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 21d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 21d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 21d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 26d
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda BUY Sora Fukuda 12¢ $21 26d
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda BUY Sora Fukuda 32¢ $102 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $18 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records