Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a2e…d3ca crypto 658 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-5%) realized −$244 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%254W / 345L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$138
14 days−$152
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$193
politics 18% −$115
other 14% −$143
sports 8% −$73
weather 5% −$38
crypto 5% −$8
tech 2% −$21
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -30.8% -37.4% 27% 17% -21.3%
≤30d 152 -12.9% -21.2% 34% 24% -18.9%
≤90d 599 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 36% -14.6%
all 599 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 36% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 36% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 31% -22.8%
15% -29.2% 26% -30.2%
20% -36.2% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses254 / 345
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions58
Markets (closed)599 / 658
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 45¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+10%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $69 $74 +$5 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 38¢ 44¢ $22 $26 +$3 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 76¢ 86¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 36¢ 55¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 81¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 70¢ 92¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 56¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+88%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 75¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 51¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$9 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 17 $35 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 17 $18 −$9 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $116 −$43 -37%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -63%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $18 +$11 +59%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -63%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 15 $79 −$13 -16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $12 +$40 +327%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$17 +134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $78 +$14 +18%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $166 −$17 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $29 −$3 -10%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 11 $11 −$6 -57%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 43m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $10 5h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $10 5h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $0 5h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $7 5h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $3 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5h
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 7h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 75¢ $5 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 75¢ $3 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $0 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $0 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $1 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 29¢ $0 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $2 16h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.23 · official $569.05 (match) · 3500 history records