Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a35…09cb crypto 962 markets active 3d ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-1%) realized −$263 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate85%816W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$259
world 0% −$13
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -6.2% -15.1% 78% 22% -15.6%
≤30d 399 -5.9% -14.8% 74% 27% -14.4%
≤90d 399 -5.9% -14.8% 74% 27% -14.4%
all 957 -3.2% -12.4% 85% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 12% -10.9%
10% -20.8% 9% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 6% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$263
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses816 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)957 / 962
History coverage310d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+109%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 68¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 71¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +451%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 62¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $6 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.90 · official $24.91 (match) · 2607 history records