Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a36…a980 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$1
world 27% −$1
politics 18% $0
crypto 16% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage338d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $64 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Aug 10 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 17 $11 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jul 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Jul 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? Jul 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayo Jul 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $117 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $28 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $19 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $20 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $14 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $14 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $16 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $16 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $32 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $3 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $10 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $19 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $32 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $29 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $21 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $29 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $29 16d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL No 97¢ $6 334d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records