Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a36…3d5a
sports · 19 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$2,368 -82%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,368 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 2 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$18
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Knicks 62¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+61%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Golden Knights 70¢ 69¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Over 27¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+270%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Under 51¢ $2,351 $0 −$2,351 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Over 52¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Under 45¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Spurs 38¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 42¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5 Over 55¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Under 27¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $7 +$4 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 08 $4 +$2 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $6 +$2 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $7 +$4 +49%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $6 +$5 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 08 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $433 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 07 $2 +$5 +265%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5 Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $19 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Jan 30 $2,351 −$2,351 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$2,367
politics 15% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $8 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $3 26h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $7 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $4 8d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $0 9d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $4 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $0 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $0 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 13d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 15d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 16d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $6 18d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 20d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 21d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 21d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 24d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 53¢ $6 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $433 26d
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5 BUY Over 55¢ $19 85d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 85d
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 51¢ $82 133d
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2,238 133d
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +77.4% +60.5% 88% 88% -4.3%
≤30d 14 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 16 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 44% -12.4%
all 17 -10.6% -19.1% 47% 41% -83.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 41% -83.7%
10% -26.9% 41% -85.3%
15% -33.9% 35% -86.7%
20% -40.4% 24% -88.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.49 · official $29.49 (match) · 63 history records