Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a39…693c sports 8 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$341 (-68%) realized −$341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$262
other 16% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-70.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -67.5% -70.6% 12% 12% -72.2%
≤30d 8 -67.5% -70.6% 12% 12% -72.2%
≤90d 8 -67.5% -70.6% 12% 12% -72.2%
all 8 -67.5% -70.6% 12% 12% -72.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.6% 12% -72.2%
10% -73.4% 12% -74.9%
15% -76.0% 12% -77.3%
20% -78.3% 12% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 23 $63 +$40 +63%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $51 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 61¢ $63 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $34 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $65 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 52¢ $34 26h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 26h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $51 26h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 40¢ $51 26h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 45¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL Walczaki 50¢ $49 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 51¢ $26 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 50¢ $25 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.54 · official $102.54 (match) · 14 history records