Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8A 0x8a3b…5fa5 sports 1204 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,442 (-3%) realized −$4,697 · open +$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%675W / 525L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$1,615est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$330
14 days+$586
30 days+$1,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,967
other 2% −$424
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 58% -4.3%
≤30d 222 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 58% -5.5%
≤90d 1019 -2.9% -12.2% 57% 55% -12.2%
all 1200 -3.8% -12.9% 56% 54% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 54% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 50% -21.1%
15% -28.9% 38% -28.7%
20% -35.9% 26% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$88 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1,416
Realized−$4,697
Unrealized+$255
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses675 / 525
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,615
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1200 / 1204
History coverage103d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 76¢ 86¢ $500 $566 +$66 (+13%)
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Leviatán Esports 75¢ 100¢ $339 $452 +$113 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ 98¢ $172 $249 +$77 (+45%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 60¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $282 −$43 -15%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $352 −$9 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $189 +$40 +21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $252 +$90 +36%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $454 +$188 +42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $252 +$115 +46%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $505 −$124 -24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $240 −$237 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $59 −$58 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $276 +$83 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $484 −$229 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 18 $252 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $338 −$38 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $282 +$64 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $14 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $52 −$51 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $252 +$90 +36%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $252 +$110 +44%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$111 +55%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $352 +$65 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $253 +$157 +62%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $352 +$96 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$85 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$111 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $304 −$51 -17%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $272 +$98 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $81 +$109 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $162 −$12 -7%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $152 +$79 +52%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $104 +$65 +62%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $153 +$189 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $131 +$75 +57%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $252 +$73 +29%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $393 −$389 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $342 −$340 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$38 +80%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $171 +$71 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$58 -81%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $452 −$82 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $263 +$90 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $181 −$26 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 −$3 -2%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $352 −$14 -4%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $452 −$20 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $452 −$450 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 84¢ $251 48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $22 48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $252 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $239 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $282 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 79¢ $343 13h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 80¢ $352 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $189 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $252 20h
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 75¢ $342 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $252 26h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 38¢ $137 26h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $252 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 73¢ $202 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $88 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 67¢ $244 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $252 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $152 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $252 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $8 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 61¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 50¢ $164 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $252 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $252 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,416.17 · official $1,405.23 (match) · 2696 history records