Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8A 0x8a3b…affe crypto 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$824 (-21%) realized −$824 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%77W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$216
14 days−$362
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$656
politics 11% −$307
world 10% −$79
other 4% −$89
sports 4% −$41
tech 2% +$4
economics 1% +$5
culture 0% +$14
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -9.8% -18.4% 24% 22% -27.5%
≤30d 104 -19.9% -27.5% 19% 18% -34.4%
≤90d 410 -28.1% -35.0% 19% 18% -36.4%
all 410 -28.1% -35.0% 19% 18% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 18% -36.4%
10% -41.2% 16% -42.5%
15% -46.9% 15% -48.0%
20% -52.1% 13% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$824
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses77 / 333
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)410 / 411
History coverage57d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $85 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $84 +$26 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $125 −$27 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$76 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$18 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$37 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $40 −$8 -19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $37 −$31 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$21 +995%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$25 +1258%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$6 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $1.50 (match) · 1290 history records