Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a40…27c9 crypto 43 markets active 3d ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$971 (-8%) realized −$971 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%42W / 1L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$15
politics 46% −$986
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -16.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -24.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -32.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$987 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$971
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses42 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage618d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,243 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,333 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $507 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 22 $771 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,288 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Feb 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $134 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 16 $142 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,020 −$987 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,243 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,333 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $771 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $507 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,288 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 107d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 107d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $6 127d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $7 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 282d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 282d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 282d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 282d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $3 282d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $2 282d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $2 282d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $2 282d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 282d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $4 282d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 282d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 282d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 282d
Trump out as President by September 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 282d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 12 to September 19, BUY No 100¢ $2 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records