Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8a41…61fe crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-6%) realized −$82 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 55% -18.6%
≤30d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 55% -18.6%
≤90d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 55% -18.6%
all 11 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 55% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 55% -18.6%
10% -20.3% 27% -26.4%
15% -28.0% 27% -33.5%
20% -35.1% 18% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$137 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 78¢ 69¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $205 +$98 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $202 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $203 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $202 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $205 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $203 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $202 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.27 · official $126.99 · 21 history records