Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

8A 0x8a43…d68c crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$88 (+20%) realized +$89 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate39%7W / 11L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day13.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-13.4%	-21.6%	39%	39%	+1.5%
≤30d	18	-13.4%	-21.6%	39%	39%	+1.5%
≤90d	18	-13.4%	-21.6%	39%	39%	+1.5%
all	18	-13.4%	-21.6%	39%	39%	+1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.6%	39%	+1.5%
10%	-29.1%	33%	-8.2%
15%	-36.0%	33%	-17.1%
20%	-42.2%	22%	-25.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized+$89

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses7 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage2d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day13.7

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5	Over	59¢	58¢	$18	$18	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$7	−$2	-22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$105	+$22	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 21	$2	+$5	+240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 21	$1	+$3	+296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$71	+$34	+48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$20	+$10	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$24	+$16	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$60	+$36	+60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$25	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$18	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$25	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	9¢	$6	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	24¢	$8	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	87¢	$80	19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$24	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$1	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$1	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$1	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$1	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$1	21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	37¢	$15	23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$20	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$24	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$71	30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$60	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.56 · official $67.56 (match) · 40 history records