Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a43…039f other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$34 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$26
world 43% +$9
politics 5% +$3
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 50% -5.9%
≤30d 19 +2.5% -7.2% 74% 32% -7.1%
≤90d 19 +2.5% -7.2% 74% 32% -7.1%
all 19 +2.5% -7.2% 74% 32% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 32% -7.1%
10% -16.1% 16% -15.9%
15% -24.2% 5% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage36d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $253 +$24 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $201 +$30 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 24 $10 −$3 -28%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $600 +$2 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 61¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $101 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $8 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 29d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $100 29d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $40 29d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $50 29d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $600 29d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $100 29d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $10 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $10 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.76 · official $10.76 (match) · 41 history records