Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a44…aeb4 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
politics 22% $0
other 21% $0
sports 12% −$12
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 28 +6.4% -3.7% 43% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 76 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 1% -9.5%
all 78 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.8%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage491d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $38 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $187 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $80 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $80 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $52 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $89 −$3 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -23%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $157 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $45 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $6 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $4 −$1 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 -11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 18 $3 −$1 -17%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $39 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $20 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $19 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $28 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $11 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $19 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $20 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $31 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $8 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records