Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a47…3b21 sports 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,768 (+5%) realized +$7,764 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%242W / 223L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$1,493est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,772
7 days+$1,068
14 days+$3,165
30 days+$9,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,961
other 28% +$3,879
crypto 1% +$242
world 0% −$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +20.7% +9.2% 51% 51% -7.1%
≤30d 363 +14.1% +3.2% 54% 53% -2.1%
≤90d 465 +10.1% -0.3% 52% 51% -5.2%
all 465 +10.1% -0.3% 52% 51% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 51% -5.2%
10% -9.9% 49% -14.2%
15% -18.6% 46% -22.5%
20% -26.6% 43% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$274 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,553
Realized+$7,764
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses242 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,493
Open positions3
Markets (closed)465 / 468
History coverage52d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 36¢ $1,208 $1,225 +$17 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 10¢ 10¢ $283 $269 −$14 (-5%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $493 +$1,118 +226%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $230 +$168 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $306 +$662 +216%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $507 +$533 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $622 +$558 +90%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $499 +$366 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $310 −$306 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $429 −$418 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,163 −$763 -35%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $732 +$535 +73%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $233 −$231 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $473 +$2,411 +510%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $656 −$648 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $663 −$333 -50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $661 −$649 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,416 −$246 -17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$8 +23%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $277 +$38 +14%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $127 +$51 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $74 +$50 +67%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $81 +$59 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $800 +$661 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $141 +$149 +105%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $68 +$54 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $166 −$161 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $724 −$712 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,232 +$1,086 +88%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$98 -99%
CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $48 +$43 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 +$25 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $716 −$705 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $537 +$463 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$30 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $585 −$576 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $139 −$137 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $135 −$132 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $969 −$955 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,157 −$1,138 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $64 +$71 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $571 +$651 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$32 +90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $427 −$418 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $858 −$847 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $656 +$543 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $496 −$489 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $291 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $1,231 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $59 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $230 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $493 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $306 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $507 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $499 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $622 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $310 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $429 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,358 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $732 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $805 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $233 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $656 29h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $399 29h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $341 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $473 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $199 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $463 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,079 33h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 58¢ $3 36h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 58¢ $72 36h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 58¢ $3 36h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 58¢ $3 36h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 59¢ $74 36h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $127 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $337 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,553.04 · official $1,553.04 (match) · 981 history records