Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a48…08c5 other 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$706 (-2%) realized −$940 · open +$234
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate62%110W / 66L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$5
30 days−$1,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 22% +$358
economics 20% −$49
world 17% −$1,058
sports 13% +$620
politics 11% −$88
weather 9% −$149
tech 3% +$16
crypto 2% +$74
culture 1% +$5
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.5% -3.7% 47% 32% -6.1%
≤30d 115 +15.4% +4.4% 74% 7% -18.2%
≤90d 165 +9.7% -0.8% 65% 12% -10.4%
all 176 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 11% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 11% -10.9%
10% -11.8% 8% -19.4%
15% -20.3% 6% -27.2%
20% -28.1% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$39 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,663
Realized−$940
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses110 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions27
Markets (closed)176 / 203
History coverage100d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 55¢ 98¢ $176 $313 +$137 (+78%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 51¢ 84¢ $189 $311 +$122 (+64%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 50¢ 40¢ $308 $250 −$59 (-19%)
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027? No 60¢ 91¢ $88 $135 +$47 (+53%)
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? No 41¢ 96¢ $43 $101 +$58 (+137%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No 54¢ 81¢ $57 $85 +$28 (+50%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 78¢ $56 $77 +$21 (+38%)
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 57¢ 94¢ $23 $37 +$15 (+65%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 56¢ 100¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+79%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 50¢ 63¢ $20 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 50¢ 60¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 63¢ 70¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+12%)
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 30¢ $31 $2 −$29 (-94%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+98%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes 43¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 50¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 +$6 +44%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +426%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 +$17 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 −$1 -10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$18 +1290%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $90 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $2 +$19 +1116%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $117 −$36 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 11 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $116 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$2 +3%
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$3 -21%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 07 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $78 +$1 +2%
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 05 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $80 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 2? Jun 02 $81 +$2 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $94 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 96¢ $60 12m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $29 30h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $29 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 91¢ $37 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 81¢ $24 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 82¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 82¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $6 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $22 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $6 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $7 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $19 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $28 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 71¢ $11 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $12 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,663.42 · official $1,662.85 (match) · 855 history records