Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8A 0x8a48…1217 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$147 (+7%) realized +$164 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$202
world 46% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.7% -22.0% 54% 46% -8.9%
≤30d 13 -13.7% -22.0% 54% 46% -8.9%
≤90d 13 -13.7% -22.0% 54% 46% -8.9%
all 13 -13.7% -22.0% 54% 46% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 46% -8.9%
10% -29.4% 31% -17.6%
15% -36.2% 23% -25.6%
20% -42.5% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$68 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $74 $57 −$17 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $313 −$173 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $182 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $205 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $207 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$9 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $571 −$103 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $300 +$318 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $74 19m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $63 22m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $29 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $22 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $89 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $83 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $118 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $109 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $114 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.85 · official $56.85 (match) · 52 history records