Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a4a…0d20 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$21
politics 23% −$9
sports 14% +$83
tech 4% −$2
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 112 +2.6% -7.2% 13% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 10% -9.4%
10% -16.1% 7% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage129d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $277 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $376 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $654 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 09 $57 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $384 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $343 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $381 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $305 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $346 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $291 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $383 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $334 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $324 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $324 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $328 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $389 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $391 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $347 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $343 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $393 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $279 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $337 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $285 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $402 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $304 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $346 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 03 $356 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $401 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $277 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $277 22d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $376 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $376 27d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $349 27d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $349 36d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? BUY No 100¢ $57 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 51d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $384 59d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $384 61d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 61d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $294 61d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 61d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $282 62d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $343 62d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $343 62d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $283 62d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $283 62d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $381 62d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $381 63d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $305 63d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $305 63d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $394 63d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $394 63d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $346 63d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $346 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records